October 27, 2013
"I expect the expiry of the cyclical bear market over the next six to nine months," Felix Zulauf told the stock exchange newspaper " Finanz und Wirtschaft ". Then the next cyclical bull market will win the gold will, drives to new record because the banks would respond to the usual turmoil in the financial markets by opening the floodgates.
That the yellow metal is currently listed rather weak, is due to the fact that Western investors with an investment horizon of six to twelve months, on the ETF would sell are invested in gold, as before, so Zulauft on.
Unlike in the emerging markets.
Weakening of hands in strong hands
In India, China and the Middle East investors have a much longer horizon, because they knew from experience that they offer protection against the gold mismanagement of politics.
"Physical gold moves from weak to strong hands and stays there.Financial investors then return when they realize that at the next break again turned the money supply and the paper money is devalued further, "said the Swiss stock market expert.
Stocks: Mature correction?
In contrast to the gold inflow calculated with a correction in the stock market - probably the first Half of 2014. The reason: "In the postwar period, the average bull market lasted 48 to 50 months, and the longest cycle lasted for 60 months. The current bull market is on the 54th Months, "says feed.
A correction would therefore be due soon. Although we have no evidence that the markets turned away down, but there are signs of a maturing market.
The bull market is getting old
"This can be seen in the fact that fewer and fewer shares carry the bull market. Thus, the last three to four index maximum was accompanied by a decreasing number of new 52-week highs. Also note fewer shares above their moving average of 200 days, "says Felix Zulauf and concludes:" The bull market is getting old. Therefore, I expect a correction in 2014 - probably in the first half. "
Inflow also notes that each year in the fifth decade is usually the best trading year. Then it would hazardous because the imbalances are even greater. Approximately every seven years, the U.S. stock markets would achieve a major low point - so in the years 1974, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2002, 2009. "The next crisis low point in 2016 would therefore be due," the stock market expert concludes.
Felix Zulauf was born 1950, and is the owner and president of Zulauf Asset Management, a Zug, Switzerland-based hedge fund. Felix has worked in the financial markets and asset management for almost 40 years. Mr. Zulauf has been a regular member of the Barron's Roundtable for more than 20 years.